Reliability and accuracy to atmospheric duct prediction based on MM5V3

The effectiveness of using MM5V3 numerical weather model to forecast atmospheric duct was tested by radiosonde data from GTS and final operational analysis(FNL) data in three regions:focused regions of East China Sea, focused regions of South China Sea, and focused regions of Gulf of Aden from two aspects of reliability and accuracy to analyse, we obtain the following results. First, for the weaker surface and elevated duct(SED), the reliability of prediction is 60% to 80%, and the reliability of stronger SED, is more than 80%; root mean square error(RMSE) of prediction for duct top height and strength are 500-800 m and 10-20 M respectively. Second, FNL data of four days are used to test the reliability and accuracy of evaporation duct(ED) prediction in high incidence area. The results show that the reliability of prediction is more than 90% and RMSE of top height prediction is 2-3 m. Generally, reliability of weaker SED prediction is low and it is higher for that of stronger SED. The accuracy of prediction for both SED top height and strength are very low. For ED in high incidence area, MM5V3 own the ability to predict it. The above results provide a reference for the prediction of the effectiveness of the mesoscale numerical weather forecast model for the prediction of atmospheric waveguides, which is of practical significance.