刘芸江, 肖瑶, 李曼, 戴铂. 基于灰色理论的foF2短期预报方法[J]. 电波科学学报, 2013, 28(5): 943-948.
      引用本文: 刘芸江, 肖瑶, 李曼, 戴铂. 基于灰色理论的foF2短期预报方法[J]. 电波科学学报, 2013, 28(5): 943-948.
      LIU Yunjiang, XIAO Yao, LI Man, DAI Bo. Method for short-term forecasting of the foF2 based on grey theory[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF RADIO SCIENCE, 2013, 28(5): 943-948.
      Citation: LIU Yunjiang, XIAO Yao, LI Man, DAI Bo. Method for short-term forecasting of the foF2 based on grey theory[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF RADIO SCIENCE, 2013, 28(5): 943-948.

      基于灰色理论的foF2短期预报方法

      Method for short-term forecasting of the foF2 based on grey theory

      • 摘要: 将灰色理论应用于电离层foF2的短期预报中,基于灰色距离信息熵确定样本序列最佳灰色预报长度,构建基于残差修正的预报模型,并利用中国地区多个观测站的观测数据进行检验.研究表明:平均灰色距离信息熵的计算结果反映了太阳自转的周期性影响;高纬度地区预报方法的精度高于低纬度地区,且在太阳活动较为剧烈的季节,预报方法的误差相对较大;提前1 d预报结果的平均相对残差在1 MHz以内,平均精度在90%以上.为今后电离层短期预报提供了一种新思路.

         

        Abstract: The grey theory is applied to the ionospheric foF2 short-term forecast. According to the theory that the optimum grey forecasting length of the sample sequence can be determined, the forecasting model, which based on the residual error correction, is constructed, and the observation data of multiple ionospheric observation stations in China are adopted for test. The research shows that the results of the average grey range information entropy can reflect the cyclical effects of solar rotation. In addition, the forecasting method is more precise in high latitudes than in lower latitudes, and its error is relatively larger during seasons with intensive solar activity. Besides, the average relative residual of the effects forecasted 1 day in advance is less than 1 MHz and its average precision is more than 90%. This method provides a new way of thinking for the short-term forecast of the ionospheric foF2 in the future.

         

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