汤军1, 姬生云2, 王健2, 王先义2. 短波通信选频中的电离层同化短期预报方法[J]. 电波科学学报, 2013, 28(3): 499-504.
      引用本文: 汤军1, 姬生云2, 王健2, 王先义2. 短波通信选频中的电离层同化短期预报方法[J]. 电波科学学报, 2013, 28(3): 499-504.
      TANG Jun1, JI Shengyun2, WANG Jian2, WANG Xianyi2. Assimilation methods of ionospheric shortterm forecast for selecting frequency in shortwave communication[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF RADIO SCIENCE, 2013, 28(3): 499-504.
      Citation: TANG Jun1, JI Shengyun2, WANG Jian2, WANG Xianyi2. Assimilation methods of ionospheric shortterm forecast for selecting frequency in shortwave communication[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF RADIO SCIENCE, 2013, 28(3): 499-504.

      短波通信选频中的电离层同化短期预报方法

      Assimilation methods of ionospheric shortterm forecast for selecting frequency in shortwave communication

      • 摘要: 为实现短波通信链路可用频率的短期预报,提出了一种基于卡尔曼同化技术的电离层特征参数短期预报方法.该方法以电离层观测网实时测量值为基础,对未来1~24 h的电离层参量foF2进行预报.通过对不同太阳活动期、不同季节中国区域预报的分析,结果表明:该方法短期预报均方根误差在0.57~0.72 MHz之间,相对误差在9%~12%之间;且中高纬地区的预报精度优于低纬地区.

         

        Abstract: For shortterm forecast of available frequency in shortwave communication, a shortterm ionospheric forecast method based on Kalman filter assimilation technique has been proposed. According to the diurnal variations of ionospheric parameters sounded by ionospheric sounding network, shortterm forecasting of critical frequencies of foF2 in the next 1~24 hours has been accomplished successfully. The shortterm forecasting results of China region during three epochs of the solar activity are analyzed, and the results show that the rootmeansquare error of forecasting value and observation of ten sounding stations was from 0.57 MHz to 0.72 MHz; the relative error was from 9% to 12%, and the forecasting accuracy of region of medium and high latitude was better than that of low latitude.

         

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