刘瑞源, 王建平, 武业文, 平劲松, 吴振森, 张北辰, 胡红桥. 用于中国地区电离层总电子含量短期预报方法[J]. 电波科学学报, 2011, 26(1): 18-24.
      引用本文: 刘瑞源, 王建平, 武业文, 平劲松, 吴振森, 张北辰, 胡红桥. 用于中国地区电离层总电子含量短期预报方法[J]. 电波科学学报, 2011, 26(1): 18-24.
      LIU Rui-yuan, WANG Jian-ping, WU Ye-wen, PING Jin-song, WU Zhen-sen, ZHANG Bei-chen, HU Hong-qiao. Method for short-term forecasting of ionospheric tatal electron content in Chinese region[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF RADIO SCIENCE, 2011, 26(1): 18-24.
      Citation: LIU Rui-yuan, WANG Jian-ping, WU Ye-wen, PING Jin-song, WU Zhen-sen, ZHANG Bei-chen, HU Hong-qiao. Method for short-term forecasting of ionospheric tatal electron content in Chinese region[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF RADIO SCIENCE, 2011, 26(1): 18-24.

      用于中国地区电离层总电子含量短期预报方法

      Method for short-term forecasting of ionospheric tatal electron content in Chinese region

      • 摘要: 电离层总电子含量(TEC)是主要的电离层特征参数之一,它的时空变化对通信、定位、雷达、导航等无线电系统有重要影响。本文给出了计算地面台站上空电离层TEC的连续时间序列的方法,在此基础上提出了一种适用于中国地区电离层TEC的短期预报方法。该方法由单站电离层预报和区域电离层重构两部分组成。单站预报中采用了自相关分析方法,能够对电离层TEC做出提前15分钟到24小时的预报;区域电离层重构采用改进的克里格方法。利用中国及周边地区33个台站的TEC实测数据进行了短期预报试验,给出了预报误差的定量估计,讨论了提高预报精度的可能途径,指出低纬站和边缘站的实时观测数据对改善中国地区电离层TEC短期预报十分重要。

         

        Abstract: Ionospheric TEC is one of the main ionospheric characteristics, which has important influence on the radio systems such as the communication, the positioning, the radar and the navigation systems. In this paper, an algorithm for calculating continuous time series of ionospheric TEC over GPS station is given, and based on the calculation, a short-term forecasting method is proposed for the ionospheric TEC in China region. This method consists of two parts:the single station forecasting and the regional ionospheric reconstruction. The auto-correlation method is adopted in the single station forecasting, having capability to predict the ionospheric TEC from 15 minutes up to 24 hours in advance. The corrected Kriging method is used in the regional ionospheric reconstruction. Based on the measurement data from 33 stations in China and its surrounding area, the short-term forecasting of the ionospheric TEC has been realized, giving the estimate of the prediction errors.Possible ways are discussed for improving the accuracy of the prediction. The real-time data from low latitudes or boundry stations are significant for improving the ionospheric TEC forecasting in China region.

         

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