李若凡,宋欣蔚,岳云涛,等. 居住环境宽带电磁辐射的分析与预测[J]. 电波科学学报,2023,38(3):476-484. DOI: 10.12265/j.cjors.2022085
      引用本文: 李若凡,宋欣蔚,岳云涛,等. 居住环境宽带电磁辐射的分析与预测[J]. 电波科学学报,2023,38(3):476-484. DOI: 10.12265/j.cjors.2022085
      LI R F, SONG X W, YUE Y T, et al. Analysis and prediction of wideband electromagnetic radiation in residential environment[J]. Chinese journal of radio science,2023,38(3):476-484. (in Chinese). DOI: 10.12265/j.cjors.2022085
      Citation: LI R F, SONG X W, YUE Y T, et al. Analysis and prediction of wideband electromagnetic radiation in residential environment[J]. Chinese journal of radio science,2023,38(3):476-484. (in Chinese). DOI: 10.12265/j.cjors.2022085

      居住环境宽带电磁辐射的分析与预测

      Analysis and prediction of wideband electromagnetic radiation in residential environment

      • 摘要: 针对居住环境内电磁辐射在周期性规律中混有较多高频分量,导致传统时序建模方法和神经网络方法预测性能受限的问题,提出了一种小波分解与季节性差分自回归滑动平均(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, SARIMA)模型相结合的混合预测方法. 该方法根据辐射数据的时频特性,利用SARIMA模型对小波分解得到的主要周期分量和细节分量进行分层预测,以适应居住环境内多种发射源形成的复杂电磁辐射状况. 实验结果表明,该方法不仅比单一时序建模方法以及神经网络方法具有更高的预测准确度,而且具有更强的异常值适应性与稳定性.

         

        Abstract: Aiming at the problem that the electromagnetic radiation in the residential environment is mixed with many high-frequency components in the periodic law, which leads to the limited prediction performance of traditional time series modeling methods and neural network methods, a hybrid prediction method combining wavelet decomposition and seasonal difference autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) model is proposed. According to the time-frequency characteristics of radiation data, the hybrid method uses SARIMA model to predict the major periodic components and detail components obtained by wavelet decomposition, so as to adapt to the complex electromagnetic radiation conditions caused by multiple emission sources in the residential environment. The experimental results show that this method not only has higher prediction accuracy than single time series modeling method and neural network method, but also has stronger adaptability and stability of outliers.

         

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