尹萍,闫晓鹏,宁泽浩. 一种基于LSTM与IRI模型的电离层层析TEC组合预测方法[J]. 电波科学学报,2022,37(5):852-861. DOI: 10.12265/j.cjors.2021271
      引用本文: 尹萍,闫晓鹏,宁泽浩. 一种基于LSTM与IRI模型的电离层层析TEC组合预测方法[J]. 电波科学学报,2022,37(5):852-861. DOI: 10.12265/j.cjors.2021271
      YIN P, YAN X P, NING Z H. A combined forecasting method of ionospheric tomography TEC based on LSTM and IRI model[J]. Chinese journal of radio science,2022,37(5):852-861. (in Chinese). DOI: 10.12265/j.cjors.2021271
      Citation: YIN P, YAN X P, NING Z H. A combined forecasting method of ionospheric tomography TEC based on LSTM and IRI model[J]. Chinese journal of radio science,2022,37(5):852-861. (in Chinese). DOI: 10.12265/j.cjors.2021271

      一种基于LSTM与IRI模型的电离层层析TEC组合预测方法

      A combined forecasting method of ionospheric tomography TEC based on LSTM and IRI model

      • 摘要: 电离层总电子含量(total electron content, TEC)作为评估无线电波穿过电离层时产生误差的主要物理量,对其准确的估算以及预测具有重要的研究意义. 本文结合电离层层析算法反演重构的TEC数据,提出一种基于长短期记忆(long short-term memory, LSTM)与国际参考电离层(international reference ionosphere, IRI)模型的组合预测模型,实现了对欧洲上空平静态电离层的TEC预测,并与IRI梯度法、LSTM网络预测结果进行对比. 实验结果表明:IRI梯度法提前1 h能够产生理想的预测结果,提前2 h与3 h的预测精度明显下降;LSTM模型在提前2 d的预测结果表现良好,但随着迭代预测时长的增加预测结果中出现较多异常值. 统计误差显示,本文所提出的组合预测模型相比于IRI梯度法预测性能更为稳定,对单一LSTM模型修正效果明显,消除了预测结果中大部分异常值,有效提高了单一模型的预测精度. 组合预测模型与实际层析TEC之间的预测均方根误差 (root mean squared error, RMSE)为1.1 TECU,与欧洲定轨中心提供的TEC预测RMSE为1.7 TECU.

         

        Abstract: Total electron content (TEC) is one of major parameters that evaluates the errors caused by radio waves passing through the ionosphere, and its accurate estimation and prediction have important research significance. Based on the reconstructed TEC data with the ionospheric tomography algorithm, a forecasting model combined the long short-term memory(LSTM)and international reference ionosphere(IRI) model is proposed to realize the prediction of the quiet-time ionospheric TEC over Europe. Besides, the prediction results are compared with those of the LSTM model and the IRI gradient method. The experimental results show that the one-hour prediction result of the IRI gradient method is the best, but the two-hour and three-hour prediction accuracy is gradually reduced. The forecasting results of the LSTM model is well within two days in advance, but with the increase of iterative prediction time, there are more outliers in the prediction results. The statistical error shows that the combined forecasting model is more stable than the IRI gradient method, and has a significant effect on the correction of the LSTM model so as to eliminate most of the outliers in the prediction results, which effectively improves the prediction accuracy of the single model. The predicted root mean square error (RMSE) between the combined forecasting model and the actual tomography TEC is 1.1 TECU, and the predicted RMSE between the forecasting prediction model and center for orbit determination in Europe- TEC(CODE-TEC) is 1.7 TECU.

         

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