An improved evaporation duct RSHMU model and prediction performance analysis
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摘要: 针对稳定条件下蒸发波导RSHMU模型过于敏感不便使用的问题，引入BH91关系式、CB05关系式和SHEBA07关系式给出了相关的改进方法，并对不同风速以及不同相对湿度的敏感性进行了分析. 结果发现引入稳定条件下的剖面稳定度函数对蒸发波导高度诊断的敏感性改善不大. 进一步地，借鉴Paulus给出的订正方法，给出了P-RSHMU蒸发波导模型改进预测方法，有效解决了已有模型稳定条件下的不合理诊断结果. 与渤海梯度塔实测数据对比分析表明：稳定条件下P-RSHMU蒸发波导模型预测蒸发波导高度的平均误差为−1.02 m，均方根误差为1.49 m，显著优于已有RSHMU模型.Abstract: Aiming the problem that the RSHMU evaporation duct model is too sensitive and can’t be used conveniently under the stable condition, some improved methods introduced BH91 expression, CB05 expression and SHEBA07 expression are given in this paper. The sensitivity analysis results under different wind speed and relative humitivity show that changing the profile function does not improve the sensitivity of evaporation duct height diagnosis. Based on the revised method given by Paulus, an improved prediction method called P-RSHMU evaporation duct model is presented which effectively solves the unreasonable diagnosis results under the stable condition compared with the original model. Compared with the measured data of gradient tower in Bohai sea, it is shown that the average error of the modified model is −1.02 m and the root mean square error is 1.49 m in stable conditions. The modified model performs better than the original RSHMU model significantly.
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Key words:
- evaporation duct /
- RSHMU model /
- P-RSHMU model /
- evaporation duct height /
- prediction performance.
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图 1 不同风速条件下RSHMU模型计算的蒸发波导高度随ASTD的变化
Fig. 1 Variation of evaporation duct height calculated by RSHMU model with ASTD at different wind speed conditions
图 2 不同RH条件下RSHMU模型计算的蒸发波导高度随ASTD的变化
Fig. 2 Variation of evaporation duct height calculated by RSHMU model with ASTD at different RH conditions
图 7 不同风速条件下P-RSHMU模型计算的蒸发波导高度随ASTD的变化
Fig. 7 Evaporation duct height calculated by P-RSHMU model variation with air-sea temperture difference at different wind speed conditions
图 8 不同RH条件下P-RSHMU模型计算的蒸发波导高度随ASTD的变化
Fig. 8 Variation of evaporation duct height calculated by P-RSHMU model variation with air-sea temprature difference at different RH conditions
图 9 不同模型预测性能散点图
Fig. 9 Scatter plot of prediction performances among different improved models
表 1 不同模型预测性能对比表
Tab. 1 Comparison of different models prediction performance
预测模型 稳定条件下预测误差 平均误差/m 均方根误差/m RSHMU 7.30 13.24 RSHMU-BH91 5.10 8.47 RSHMU-CB05 6.80 11.70 RSHMU-SHEBA07 5.00 7.99 P-RSHMU −1.02 1.49 
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