基于中尺度WRF模式多年模拟的悬空波导时空 分布特征研究——以西北太平洋副热带及其邻近海域为例

      Research on the Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Elevated Duct Based On Multi-year Mesoscale WRF Simulations: A Case Study of the Subtropical Northwest Pacific Ocean and its Adjacent Area

      • 摘要: 为弥补海洋上空悬空波导长时序、高分辨率数据集的缺失,本文以西北太平洋副热带及其邻近海域为例,基于中尺度WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,采用连续滚动的方法模拟构建2007—2017年长达11年的悬空波导大数据集(水平分辨率12km,时间分辨率1hour),结合船载探空和海岛探空观测数据对模拟准确度进行平均偏差、TS(Threat Score)评分等指标评估,并揭示了研究海域悬空波导发生概率、高度、强度的多年、季节时空分布规律,为海洋上空电磁环境评估、雷达探测及通信保障提供数据支撑。结果表明,WRF模式能够反映大气中温度和湿度随高度变化的趋势,较好地刻画海洋上空悬空波导现象。西北太平洋副热带海域与南海北部为悬空波导频发海域,多年平均发生概率超40%、平均高度超500m、平均强度超7.5M-unit,模拟区域35°N以北极少出现悬空波导现象。悬空波导时空分布季节差异显著,冬季悬空波导发生概率和平均高度最高、平均强度最强,春季次之,夏季最低。

         

        Abstract: In this paper, the subtropical Northwest Pacific Ocean and its adjacent area are selected as the research region, and a large dataset is constructed to address the shortage of long-term time-series and high-resolution datasets of elevated ducts over the ocean. The mesoscale WRF model with a horizontal resolution of 12 km and a temporal resolution of 1 hour is used to conduct 11-year simulations over the study region from 2007 to 2017 through a continuous rolling method. The shipborne and island sounding data are utilized to evaluate the accuracy of model simulations. The decadal and seasonal distribution characteristics of elevated ducts occurrence probability, average height, and average strength are given, which provides data support for electromagnetic environment assessment, radar detection and communication guarantee over the ocean. The results indicate that the trends of temperature and humidity variation with height, as well as the phenomenon of elevated ducts, can be well reproduced by the WRF model. The subtropical Northwest Pacific and the northern South China Sea region are the sea areas where elevated duct occur frequently. The average occurrence probability over years exceeds 40%, the average height exceeds 500m, and the average intensity exceeds 7.5M-unit. However, the phenomenon of elevated duct rarely occurs north of 35°N in the simulated domain. The spatial and temporal distribution of elevated ducts shows significant seasonal differences. The occurrence probability, average height and average strength of the elevated duct are highest in winter, followed by spring and lowest in summer.

         

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