基于GOA-BP的海域蒸发波导智能预报方法

      The intelligent forecasting method of marine evaporation duct based on GOA-BP model

      • 摘要: 面向对流层超视距通信对大区域高分辨率蒸发波导高度的精确性预报需求,提出一种融合塘鹅优化算法(GOA)和反向传播(BP)神经网络的预报模型,即GOA-BP模型。首先利用WRF中尺度数值模式,获得区域环境气象参数;其次,结合美国海军研究生院NPS模型预报蒸发波导高度,构建出包含丰富环境信息与蒸发波导高度预报值的数据集;然后,引入GOA优化BP神经网络的初始参数,显著增强模型的全局搜索能力和收敛速度,规避传统BP神经网络易于陷入局部最优解的缺陷,最后经过训练得到GOA-BP模型。结果表明,GOA-BP模型决定系数达到97.21%,验证误差RMSE平均值为2.24 m,能够更准确有效地预报蒸发波导高度。可为超短波/微波超视距雷达和无线电通信系统规划和应用提供参考。

         

        Abstract: To meet the demand for accurate high-resolution evaporation duct height forecasting over large areas in tropospheric over-the-horizon (OTH) communication, this study proposes a prediction model that integrates the Gannet Optimization Algorithm (GOA) with a Back-Propagation (BP) neural network, termed the GOA-BP model. First, regional environmental meteorological parameters are obtained using the WRF mesoscale numerical model. Then, the evaporation duct height is predicted by combining the NPS model from the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, creating a dataset containing rich environmental information and forecasted duct height values. Next, the GOA algorithm is introduced to optimize the initial parameters of the BP neural network, significantly enhancing the model's global search ability and convergence speed, thus avoiding the drawback of traditional BP neural networks, which are prone to getting trapped in local optima. Finally, the GOA-BP model is obtained through training. The results show that the coefficient of determination (R2) reaches 97.21%, with an average verification error (RMSE) of 2.24 meters, demonstrating that the GOA-BP model can more accurately and effectively predict the evaporation duct height. This can provide valuable reference for planning and application of ultra-shortwave/microwave beyond-line-of-sight radar and radio communication systems.

         

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