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电离层总电子含量的短期预报方法的误差评估

武业文, 刘瑞源, 吴振森, 张北辰, 刘俊明

武业文, 刘瑞源, 吴振森, 张北辰, 刘俊明. 电离层总电子含量的短期预报方法的误差评估[J]. 电波科学学报, 2011, 26(6): 1141-1147.
引用格式: 武业文, 刘瑞源, 吴振森, 张北辰, 刘俊明. 电离层总电子含量的短期预报方法的误差评估[J]. 电波科学学报, 2011, 26(6): 1141-1147.
WU Ye-wen, LIU Rui-yuan, WU Zhen-sen, ZHANG Bei-chen, LIU Jun-ming. Evaluation of the prediction errors from the method for the ionospheric TEC short-term forecasting in China region[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF RADIO SCIENCE, 2011, 26(6): 1141-1147.
Reference format: WU Ye-wen, LIU Rui-yuan, WU Zhen-sen, ZHANG Bei-chen, LIU Jun-ming. Evaluation of the prediction errors from the method for the ionospheric TEC short-term forecasting in China region[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF RADIO SCIENCE, 2011, 26(6): 1141-1147.

电离层总电子含量的短期预报方法的误差评估

详细信息
    作者简介:

    武业文(1983-),男,辽宁人,西安电子科技大学无线电物理专业在读博士生,现在中国极地中心做博士论文,主要从事电离层物理研究;刘瑞源(1941-),男,江苏人,研究员、博士生导师,享受政府特殊津贴。中国电子学会会士,中国空间科学学会理事。长期从事电离层与无线电波传播、极区高空大气物理研究,发表论文120余篇,获国家部级以上科技进步奖10项;吴振森(1946-),男,湖北人,西安电子科技大学教授,博士生导师,无线电物理学科和光学学科带头人,近几年负责国家高科技发展计划、国家自然科学基金和国防科技预研等项目三十余项。在国内外学术刊物发表论文近三百篇,被SCI和EI检索有100余篇,作为主持人获国家及省部级奖多项。主要研究方向(无线电物理方面):目标与环境的电磁特性、随机介质和复杂结构的电磁波传播和散射、电磁环境的模化技术、计算电磁学。

    通信作者:

    刘瑞源 E-mail:ryliu@pric.gov.cn

  • 中图分类号: P352.1

Evaluation of the prediction errors from the method for the ionospheric TEC short-term forecasting in China region

  • 摘要: 用统计学的方法分析了用自相关分析法和改进的克里格插值法对中国地区电离层总电子含量(TEC)进行短期预报的预报误差。结果表明:预报误差的大小在地域上呈现出由北向南逐渐增大的趋势,时间上,在二分季节误差较大,误差日变化的峰值出现在午后。而相对误差则是在冬季最大,在夏季最小;相对误差的日变化为双峰结构,峰值出现的时间在8点和20点附近。从总体上看,在提前一小时预报中国地区电离层TEC时,相对误差为12%左右。通过统计对比单站预报和区域重构对最终预报误差的影响可以看出,单站预报误差起主要作用。因此,改进单站预报方法十分重要,可以有效地提高预报精度。同时,也需要增加并合理布局全球定位系统(GPS)接收台站。
    Abstract: The prediction errors are statistically analyzed for the method of the ionospheric total electron content(TEC) short-term forecasting in China region. The results show that the prediction error rate gradually becomes larger from north to south China, and have the larger value in vernal and autumnal equinoxes. The diurnal variation of prediction errors has a single-peak at about 15:00. While the relative errors have the largest values in winter and the smallest values in summer, and exist two obvious peaks at around 8:00 and 20:00. Overall, the mean of the relative errors is about 12% with 1 hour in advance. At the same time, it can be found that the prediction error for the single station forecasting has larger proportion in the whole method by comparing it to the reconstruction error. Therefore, to improve the single station prediction is such an effective way to improve the accuracy of the whole method. In the meantime, it is necessary to increase and well distribute the GPS receiving stations.
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  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2010-12-19
  • 网络出版日期:  2020-12-30
  • 发布日期:  2011-12-30

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