基于SPARC高分辨率数据的悬空波导特征参数预测

      Prediction of elevated duct characteristics based on SPARC high-resolution data

      • 摘要: 悬空波导是对流层中的一种自然现象,信号通过在波导内发生超折射,能够实现远距离、低损耗的传输,有望成为海洋通信研究中一个有效的突破点。为支撑海洋通信应用并提升波导参数的预测精度,本文基于SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate)高分辨率探空数据SAN JUAN、MAJURO和TRUK INTL三个站点2016—2022年悬空波导强度时间序列,引入基于时间序列的神经分层插值(neural hierarchical interpolation for time series, N-HiTS)方法,构建了悬空波导强度精确化长期预测模型,并开展了单站点建模和多站点验证分析。分析结果表明:针对TRUK INTL站点观测数据,模型能够挖掘强度序列中的长期趋势和局部波动特征,均方根误差为6.35 M-units,平均绝对误差为4.31 M-units;SAN JUAN和MAJURO验证站点的均方根误差分别为7.35 M-units 和6.54 M-units。所建模型在悬空波导强度长期预测中具有较好的泛化能力,可为悬空波导特征参数分析及该机理下无线传输效应分析提供有力支撑。

         

        Abstract: Elevated duct is a natural phenomenon occurring in the troposphere, where signals undergo superrefraction within the duct and can achieve long-distance, low-loss propagation, making it a promising breakthrough point in marine communication research. To support marine communication applications and improve the prediction accuracy of duct parameters, this paper utilizes high-resolution radiosonde data from the SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) project, specifically focusing on the elevated ducting strength time series from the SAN JUAN, MAJURO, and TRUK INTL stations recorded between 2016 and 2022. By introducing the Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series (N-HiTS) method, a high-precision long-term prediction model for elevated ducting strength was constructed, with single-site modeling and multi-site validation performed. The results show that for the observational data at the TRUK INTL station, the model captures both long-term trends and local fluctuation features in the strength series, achieving a root mean square error (RMSE) of 6.35 M-units and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.31 M-units. For the validation stations, SAN JUAN and MAJURO, the RMSE values are 7.35 M-units and 6.54 M-units, respectively. The proposed model exhibits strong generalization capability in the long-term prediction of elevated duct strength, providing robust support for the analysis of elevated duct characteristic parameters and the study of wireless propagation effects under this mechanism.

         

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