基于TTL的电离层TEC预报模型在不同太阳活动期的对比研究与性能评估

      Ionospheric TEC forecasting model based on TTL: a comparative study and performance evaluation during different solar activity periods

      • 摘要: 电离层总电子含量(total electron content, TEC)的精确预报对保障全球导航卫星系统(Global Navigation Satellite System, GNSS)性能及空间天气应用具有重要意义。针对TEC序列的非线性、非平稳性及时空依赖特性,本研究提出一种融合时间卷积网络(temporal convolutional network, TCN)、Transformer与长短期记忆(long short-term memory, LSTM)网络的混合神经网络模型,通过TCN提取局部多尺度特征,利用Transformer捕捉长程全局依赖,并由LSTM整合时序动态,形成层次化级联预报架构。本文基于欧洲定轨中心(Center for Orbit Determination in Europe, CODE)发布的全球电离层地图的(Global Ionosphere Map, GIM)数据,在研究区域开展的实验验证了该模型在多种空间天气条件下的优越性能。实验结果表明,在太阳活动低年(2019年),模型RMSE为0.55 TECU,较LSTM、Transformer及Transformer-LSTM(TL)模型分别降低37%、40%与15%;在 太阳活动高年(2023年),模型RMSE为1.82 TECU,较上述三种对比模型分别降低43%、44%与20%,其精度显著优于所有对比模型。此外,在太阳活动高年的不同等级的磁暴事件中,该模型始终保持较高的精度,展现了其在极端空间天气条件下的适用性与应用潜力,为电离层TEC的高精度、高稳健性预报提供了一种有效的神经网络解决方案。

         

        Abstract: Accurate forecasting of ionospheric total electron content(TEC) is critically important for ensuring the reliable performance of Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS) and supporting various space weather applications, particularly in the context of increasing reliance on satellite-based technologies and the growing awareness of space weather impacts on technological systems. This study addresses the complex characteristics of TEC sequences—including their inherent nonlinearity, non-stationary behavior, and complicated spatiotemporal dependencies—by developing an advanced hybrid neural network model that strategically integrates the complementary strengths of temporal convolutional network(TCN), Transformer, and long short-term memory (LSTM) architectures in a carefully designed hierarchical framework. Specifically, the model employs TCN to effectively extract local multi-scale features from TEC sequences, utilizes the self-attention mechanism of Transformer to capture long-range global dependencies that are characteristic of ionospheric phenomena, and incorporates LSTM networks to integrate temporal dynamics and maintain memory of past states, thereby creating a comprehensive modeling approach that addresses multiple aspects of TEC variability simultaneously. The experimental investigation was conducted using extensive Global Ionosphere Map (GIM) data from Center for Orbit Determination in Europe(CODE), with a focused regional analysis over China to evaluate model performance across diverse space weather conditions spanning both solar minimum and maximum periods. Comprehensive evaluation results demonstrate that during the solar minimum of 2019, our proposed model achieved a remarkable RMSE of 0.55 TECU, representing substantial error reductions of 37%, 40%, and 15% compared to the standalone LSTM, Transformer, and combined Transformer-LSTM(TL) models respectively, while during the more challenging solar maximum of 2023, the model maintained strong performance with an RMSE of 1.82 TECU and corresponding error reductions of 43%, 44%, and 20% against the same baseline models, clearly indicating its superior accuracy and robustness across different solar activity regimes. Particularly noteworthy is the model's consistent performance during different intensity levels of geomagnetic storms occurring in the high solar activity period, where it successfully maintained high forecasting accuracy despite the disturbed space weather conditions, thereby demonstrating its practical applicability and reliability under extreme space weather scenarios that typically pose significant challenges for ionospheric forecasting. The proposed hybrid architecture therefore represents a significant advancement in neural network solutions for ionospheric TEC forecasting, providing both high accuracy and robust performance across varying space weather conditions while effectively addressing the complex spatiotemporal characteristics of TEC variations. The demonstrated consistency during both solar minimum and maximum periods, coupled with the maintained performance during geomagnetic disturbances, suggests strong potential for operational implementation in space weather forecasting systems and practical applications in GNSS positioning, navigation, and related technological systems that are vulnerable to ionospheric variability.

         

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