一种基于历史气象数据的蒸发波导高度实时预测方法

      A real-time prediction method for evaporation duct height based on historical meteorological data

      • 摘要: 为实现南海海域蒸发波导高度(evaporation duct height, EDH)的快速、准确预测,本文提出了一种基于历史气象数据的实时预测方法。该方法构建了一个由时间序列预测模块与物理约束诊断模块组成的两阶段系统:采用由北方苍鹰优化(northern goshawk optimization, NGO)算法与贝叶斯优化(Bayesian optimization, BO)联合形成的混合优化器NGO-BO自动优化Informer模型的超参数,实现多维气象要素的高精度时序预测;将经典NPS模型的物理方程嵌入物理信息神经网络(physics-informed neural network, PINN)损失函数中,从而形成PINN-NPS蒸发波导诊断模型,再将预测得到的气象参数输入其中计算大气波导高度。通过在南海永兴岛海域气象数据上的实验结果表明,本文所提出的NGO-BO-Informer模型的平均绝对误差(mean absolute error, MAE)为0.45 m,决定系数达到0.99%;PINN-NPS模型对大气波导高度诊断结果的MAE为1.32 m,决定系数为0.73%。该方法在复杂海洋边界层下进行EDH实时预测具有很好的有效性与工程应用价值,可为海上通信、雷达预警与电磁环境监测提供参考。

         

        Abstract: To achieve rapid and accurate prediction of evaporation duct height (EDH) over the South China Sea, this paper proposes a real-time prediction method based on historical meteorological data. The method consists of a two-stage framework combining a time-series forecasting module and a physics-informed diagnostic module. A hybrid optimizer integrating northern goshawk optimization (NGO) and Bayesian optimization (BO), termed NGO-BO, is used to automatically tune the hyperparameters of the Informer model for high-precision meteorological forecasting. The physical equations of the classical NPS model are then embedded into the loss function of a physics-informed neural network (PINN) to construct the PINN-NPS diagnostic model, which estimates EDH using the predicted meteorological parameters. Experiments on meteorological data from Yongxing Island in the South China Sea show that the proposed NGO-BO-Informer achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.45 m and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.99, while the PINN-NPS model attains an MAE of 1.32 m and an R2 of 0.73. The results confirm the effectiveness and practical value of the proposed approach for real-time EDH prediction under complex marine boundary layer conditions, providing useful references for maritime communication, radar warning, and electromagnetic environment monitoring.

         

      /

      返回文章
      返回