气象火箭探测数据不确定度评估与对比分析

      Uncertainty assessment and comparative analysis of meteorological rocket sounding data

      • 摘要: 气象火箭探测数据对临近空间环境研究有着重要的价值。利用2023年11月在新疆巴州地区获取的两组气象火箭探测数据和L波段探空数据,在温度修正模型、测风反演模型和气压、密度计算公式的基础上,通过误差分析理论评估了测量不确定度,并对两种探测数据进行了对比分析,对误差可能原因进行了探讨,最后与主流大气模型和数值模式产品进行了对比。结果表明:气象火箭温度、风速、风向不确定度分别为0.3~2.8 ℃、0.1~1.6 m/s、0.1°~1.9°,气压和大气密度相对误差分别为1.1%~4.1%和1.1%~4.3%,均误差值随高度不断增大。与L波段探空数据相比,气象火箭探测数据各要素变化趋势一致性较好,廓线偏差和离散度较小,能够体现出更多测量细节,且数据质量和精度均较高。与L波段探空数据存在偏差的主要原因是探测原理不同、探测时间和位置差异、探测仪器自身测量误差与模式修订误差。临近空间环境预报、ERA5再分析资料各要素廓线与气象火箭重合度更好,偏差也较小,可为后续模型和资料标定使用提供一定参考。

         

        Abstract: Meteorological rocket sounding data are of great significance for research on the near-space environment. Based on two sets of meteorological rocket sounding data and L-band radiosonde data obtained in Bazhou, Xinjiang, in November 2023, this study evaluates measurement uncertainty using error analysis theory in conjunction with a temperature correction model, wind inversion model, and formulas for pressure and density calculation. A comparative analysis of the two types of sounding data was conducted, possible causes of discrepancies were discussed, and further comparisons were made with mainstream atmospheric models and numerical products. The results show that the uncertainties of temperature, wind speed, and wind direction measured by meteorological rockets are 0.3 to 2.8℃, 0.1 to 1.6 m/s, and 0.1° to 1.9°, respectively, while the relative errors of pressure and density are 1.1% to 4.1% and 1.1% to 4.3%, both increasing with altitude. Compared with L-band radiosonde data, the meteorological rocket data exhibit good consistency in variation trends, with smaller profile deviations and dispersion, capturing more measurement details with higher quality and accuracy. The main sources of deviation between meteorological rocket and L-band radiosonde data are differences in detection principles, temporal and spatial sampling, measurement errors inherent to the instruments, and model correction errors. The profiles from near-space environment forecasts and ERA5 reanalysis data align more closely with meteorological rocket data, showing smaller deviations. These results can support the subsequent calibration and application of models and data.

         

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